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Breaking into the planet's most popular art institution in broad daylight, grabbing eight pieces of priceless historical gems and disappearing into the city traffic on humble scooters may seem like the boldest of crimes, carried out for international notoriety and subsequent movie adaptations.

Specialists who observe patterns in international art crime, however, see Sunday morning’s heist at the Louvre as a more practical matter: the most recent in a string of quick-hit thefts focused more on the monetary worth of precious stones or materials than the artifacts’ significance, continuing a trend that has appeared over the last ten years in Germany, Britain and the US. The location, they propose, would have been of secondary concern to the criminals.

“One might wonder why criminals who want to take valuable jewellery are breaking into a globally renowned museum rather than a Cartier store,” stated an expert in art recovery. “The answer is simple: it’s because these days a high-end boutique is better protected.”

A series of violent retail store thefts indicate that many stores have strengthened their protection in recent years, with armed guards on their premises and wares no longer kept on display overnight. Museums, meanwhile, look more exposed, partly because of the in-built factor of being public-facing institutions in older structures, and partly the current economic climate in many western countries.

“Since Covid, authorities across the globe have reduced spending on police and the arts funding,” said Marinello. “If thieves can get into the Louvre, it demonstrates how at risk our institutions have become. This is a difficult time to be a museum.”

The robbery of the objects – featuring jewelry pieces made up of eight sapphires and 631 diamonds, the crown of Empress Eugénie containing nearly 2,000 diamonds and a hugely valuable crown once possessed by Napoleon III’s wife that the thieves left by the roadside on their way out – has inevitably been compared with the historical theft of the famous painting from the Louvre, performed by the worker the thief.

More relevant points of reference may be the recent theft of valuables from a German institution worth over €113m, the taking of a £4.75m valuable object from Blenheim Palace the that year, the 2017 robbery of a large gold coin from Berlin’s Bode Museum or even a spate of robberies of collector items from US mining museums.

“It's a clear trend here,” said Marinello. “Break in, take items, and dismantle them as quickly as possible.”

If the items were to remain intact, specialists say, the criminals would struggle to sell them. “It's impossible to sell something as recognizable as the Louvre’s jewels on the legal marketplace”, commented an art crime researcher of the a relevant organization.

“They are too well-known, especially given the Ministry of Culture has published photos of the pieces. Even a private collector or an auction house would want to see paperwork establishing legal possession before touching such striking pieces.”

In the previous years, institutions were often reluctant to announce publicly about the loss of well-known art pieces and would stay silent out of shame. These days, as art thefts are more reported on, the keeping and selling of stolen art is dangerous for any criminal.

“Taking a Picasso, it has to remain intact or it becomes valueless, and you have to conceive of a scheme to conceal it, maybe by passing it around dangerous individuals,” noted Marinello. “And you’re constantly exposed to the risk of an accomplice telling the police to collect a ransom.”

For similar reasons, an art detective said it was highly improbable that the robbery had been commissioned. “Commissioned theft is something from Hollywood movies,” he said. “No one would handle these items. It’s all around the world and in all the media. If you acquire these, if you are apprehended, you go to jail. You cannot show it to your acquaintances, you cannot bequeath it to your children.”

Modifying taken items by dismantling or reshaping does reduce the value. When it comes to diamonds, it also comes with significant danger because contemporary cutting techniques give gems a bigger and lighter appearance, and older-style stones would either draw unwanted attention or reduce value for a concealment.

Importantly, however, melting down or reshaping removes the proof of the theft. “My guess is that the Louvre thieves will try to bring the items to places with gem knowledge like a country, India or even as close as Antwerp, and locate an expert to remove the gems,” suggested Marinello.

The robbery at the Louvre has already brought up concerns about security measures at the institution, with a unauthorized official review expected to be released soon pointing out “considerable” and “ongoing” slow progress in updating systems and observing that security cameras were missing in many rooms. But specialists say displaying precious items in historic buildings with a constant flow of guests comes with dangers that are impossible to eliminate completely.

“Older structures are much harder to secure,” said an art crime professor. “Many of them have large accessible windows that makes it easy for thieves to get away, and there may be preservation laws in place that mean you are unable to install them with proper bulletproof glass.”

The most solid security systems for buildings should be designed “as a stronghold”, noted a security advisor. “There should be several layers to deter intruders.”

Contemporary structures are equipped with advanced external CCTV cameras or in-built seismic detectors that raise alarm about a smashed window in immediately, but historic institutions may be reluctant to uglify their exteriors. Laser scanners can be difficult to fit to stuccoed ceilings. Motion and sound detectors may also have to be turned off during the daytime as crowds stomp through a museum.

The schedule of the robbery, which occurred between 9.30am and 9.40am local time, was typical of modern robberies, Stürmann said. “It's logical why thefts tend to happen at either start or end of day. It’s often when guards rotate and before the museum is crowded who actually act as extra protection.”

Technological progress may have thrown up new devices that can raise the alarm more rapidly and efficiently, but it has also provided thieves new tools with which to circumvent security measures. In the city, the robbers reached the museum’s upper level with a mobile equipment and cut through a window with a electric tool.

Elaine Sciolino said the discussion in France about the historic structure had primarily focused on visitor management in the past decade, and less on security.

The museum has an on-site brigade of about fifty permanent emergency personnel, but their purpose is mainly to safeguard the collection from fires and flooding. “There is no quick reaction team,” Sciolino said. “Ultimately, the safety of the Louvre all comes down to government support and money, and currently France simply has no money.”