🔗 Share this article Everyday Murders in the nation Decline Over a Third During the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Official Figures The typical figure of per-day murders each month in the country has fallen by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by fresh government statistics. Nevertheless, public safety specialists have warned that murder numbers might not indicate improved countrywide security. Significant Reduction in Daily Averages There was an average of nearly 55 killings a day in the month of November as opposed to nearly 87 when Sheinbaum began the presidential office in the previous September. This data was delivered by the chief of the country’s federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on Tuesday. “The result in murders that we’ve had during these past months is very significant,” Claudia Sheinbaum stated, adding that last month the lowest amount of homicides were recorded for any single November in the last decade. Recent Context and Government Plan Fierce cartel internal conflicts, combined with the administration's heavily militarised efforts to take on the cartels, have made Mexico’s murder numbers soar in the past few years. The figure reached a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the nation's official data office. That meant Mexico a homicide rate over 4x greater than the US. However, homicides have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has linked her public safety strategy for an seemingly more pronounced decline in homicides in the current year. At a press conference in August, the President stated: “We have a strategy, we have tracking of the strategy, and we have detailed monitoring locality by locality in certain cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to keep working at it daily.” The central pillars of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy involve: Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force. Enhancing information gathering and investigation capabilities. Increased cooperation between government authorities. Analyst Caution and Data Limitations But, public safety experts warned that relying on homicide numbers to paint a picture of pacification was flawed. This is particularly true considering the increase in other criminal activities such as forced disappearances. “That would be positive news if this were a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the homicide data and say: ‘Alright, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican organised crime. “I would be tentatively optimistic.” Per the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year compared with the same period the previous year. However, disappearances have risen by 15% and in some states have increased by as much as 200%. “Data on murders is no longer useful for assessing the context of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the resources or the desire to accurately identify and classify corpses. Second, organised [criminals] … have the means to mask violence through disappearances.” Vargas noted that using month-to-month averages of daily homicides was also concerning because it could obscure days when there were particularly spiking numbers of murders. “Using the per-day mean makes surges of violence less visible,” he stated. Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress An area where the administration can cite the success of its safety strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Close to 40,000 individuals were apprehended between October 2024 and this past November for high-impact crimes, according to government data. More than 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tonnes of drugs intercepted. “The former US president cannot claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s extremely politically advantageous,” said Vargas. Ongoing Violence and Public Frustration Yet despite these efforts, Mexico continues to be grappling with severe bloodshed, with a number of states in the grip of cartel-fueled violence. Last month there was a prominent assassination of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors murdered in the last year. Weeks after, thousands of young people demonstrated in Mexico City and across the country to voice their outrage at graft and narco-violence. “The administration frames [data] in a manner to create a narrative of safety. From a political standpoint it’s very potent, socially it’s very problematic,” the analyst remarked.
The typical figure of per-day murders each month in the country has fallen by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by fresh government statistics. Nevertheless, public safety specialists have warned that murder numbers might not indicate improved countrywide security. Significant Reduction in Daily Averages There was an average of nearly 55 killings a day in the month of November as opposed to nearly 87 when Sheinbaum began the presidential office in the previous September. This data was delivered by the chief of the country’s federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on Tuesday. “The result in murders that we’ve had during these past months is very significant,” Claudia Sheinbaum stated, adding that last month the lowest amount of homicides were recorded for any single November in the last decade. Recent Context and Government Plan Fierce cartel internal conflicts, combined with the administration's heavily militarised efforts to take on the cartels, have made Mexico’s murder numbers soar in the past few years. The figure reached a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the nation's official data office. That meant Mexico a homicide rate over 4x greater than the US. However, homicides have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has linked her public safety strategy for an seemingly more pronounced decline in homicides in the current year. At a press conference in August, the President stated: “We have a strategy, we have tracking of the strategy, and we have detailed monitoring locality by locality in certain cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to keep working at it daily.” The central pillars of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy involve: Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force. Enhancing information gathering and investigation capabilities. Increased cooperation between government authorities. Analyst Caution and Data Limitations But, public safety experts warned that relying on homicide numbers to paint a picture of pacification was flawed. This is particularly true considering the increase in other criminal activities such as forced disappearances. “That would be positive news if this were a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the homicide data and say: ‘Alright, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican organised crime. “I would be tentatively optimistic.” Per the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year compared with the same period the previous year. However, disappearances have risen by 15% and in some states have increased by as much as 200%. “Data on murders is no longer useful for assessing the context of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the resources or the desire to accurately identify and classify corpses. Second, organised [criminals] … have the means to mask violence through disappearances.” Vargas noted that using month-to-month averages of daily homicides was also concerning because it could obscure days when there were particularly spiking numbers of murders. “Using the per-day mean makes surges of violence less visible,” he stated. Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress An area where the administration can cite the success of its safety strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Close to 40,000 individuals were apprehended between October 2024 and this past November for high-impact crimes, according to government data. More than 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tonnes of drugs intercepted. “The former US president cannot claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s extremely politically advantageous,” said Vargas. Ongoing Violence and Public Frustration Yet despite these efforts, Mexico continues to be grappling with severe bloodshed, with a number of states in the grip of cartel-fueled violence. Last month there was a prominent assassination of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors murdered in the last year. Weeks after, thousands of young people demonstrated in Mexico City and across the country to voice their outrage at graft and narco-violence. “The administration frames [data] in a manner to create a narrative of safety. From a political standpoint it’s very potent, socially it’s very problematic,” the analyst remarked.